Since 2019, at the beginning of each year, the word "unpredictability" is the one that stands out the most when we try to predict what's coming. 2023 does not escape this trend.
Despite everything, 2022 turned out to be a year where the very good and the very bad were mixed, with the balance, in terms of real estate activity, being positive.
2022 an unusually exceptional year
For me and many other colleagues, with experience and a consistent career in real estate, it was another year of challenges and opportunities that, with hard work and some merit, we were able to take advantage of.
Suffice it to mention these milestones: I once again reached the top spot in the Top Individual of KW Portugal, the volume of turnover and the number of properties raised / transacted, reached the highest value ever, in my short career in real estate.It's only been 8 years, 7 of which ended like this year: Individual No. 1 among 2800 KW Portugal consultants.
Once again, thank you to everyone who has helped me, clients, colleagues, KW Sol and KW Portugal!
"The art of forecasting is to anticipate what will happen and then explain why it didn't happen"
Putting Sir Winston Churchill's sense of humor aside, this is a phrase that applies at every beginning of the year, to the most diverse professional activities.
Now here are my anticipations for 2023 :)
1 - The "bubble" will not burst. There will be room for occasional corrections, especially in the sale prices of used homes. There will be room for a reduction in supply, both in terms of the number of new homes and second-hand homes, as well as the supply of homes for rent (partially canceling out the effects of the current recessive environment, as demand will continue to exceed supply available).
2 - The energy sustainability of the houses will be at the forefront of concern for owners and promoters. Energy price inflation is here to stay. Maintaining an air-conditioned home, or charging an electric vehicle, are concerns that can be partially resolved with the use of solar energy production and storage. The new batteries, cheaper and more efficient, for storing the energy produced by photovoltaic panels, are in the approval phase in Europe. On the other hand, there is the option to sell energy not consumed. The support of new support programs with community funds will further encourage this change.
3 - The Metropolitan Areas of Lisbon and Porto will continue to grow. High prices in urban centers will end up having an effect similar to what happened in other large European cities and capitals: the expansion of the urban area towards its bordering areas. In Lisbon, this effect will be more noticeable, both on the south bank and in the area north of Lisbon, with Loures, Seixal and Montijo continuing to expand thanks to new real estate projects.
4 - The real estate market in cities in the interior of the country will grow. The telework of national or foreign workers (aided by visas for digital nomads), will generate new opportunities outside of greater Lisbon and Porto, with emphasis on the Center and North zone. The Algarve will continue to be an exception, due to immobility and excessive bureaucracy in licensing new construction.
5 - The informal economy linked to renting will increase. The scarcity and high prices of rent will further encourage the informal economy and multi-tenant solutions in a single fraction. The demand for houses and rooms for rent is very high and there is no offer that satisfies it. The same reality will continue to affect local rentals, due to the restrictions imposed by the municipalities of large cities. This situation is conducive to the emergence of illegal solutions, without the desired conditions of safety and habitability, on the part of less scrupulous owners.
6 - Real estate mediation will experience more troubled times.The new regulation of the activity of real estate consultants and the shortage of real estate will put a brake on the number of professionals operating in this sector. Many small branches will close, as they are unable to withstand the combined effect of increased costs due to inflation, with the operational reduction in turnover. Many professionals who temporarily embraced this activity will leave, not least because the low unemployment numbers help to create more attractive alternatives in terms of wages and stability. In summary, I foresee greater concentration in the real estate sector, with a reduction in the number of professionals and a greater degree of professionalization.
And that's how it is, the world jumps and moves forward, with more or less obstacles, but an experienced professional will always find a way around them, because resilience and the strength of his work are his main weapon.